Grover's Insight: Memahami Risiko Financial Distress di Sektor Pariwisata Negara Indonesia dan Thailand

Dodi Utami; Isnawati

doi:10.37905/jar.v6i2.219

Dodi Utami Universitas Mataram, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Isnawati Universitas Mataram, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37905/jar.v6i2.219

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis prediksi financial distress pada perusahaan sektor pariwisata di Indonesia dan Thailand periode 2019–2024 menggunakan Model Grover. Sektor pariwisata dipilih karena perannya yang strategis sekaligus rentan terhadap guncangan eksternal seperti pandemi COVID-19. Sampel terdiri dari 25 perusahaan di Bursa Efek Indonesia (IDX) dan 19 perusahaan di Bursa Efek Thailand (SET), dipilih melalui purposive sampling. Analisis statistik deskriptif terhadap skor Grover menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia mengalami tekanan pada 2020 (36% perusahaan tidak sehat), namun pulih sepenuhnya pada 2023–2024. Thailand lebih terdampak dengan 79% perusahaan mengalami distress pada 2021, meski pulih bertahap hingga 95% perusahaan kembali sehat di 2024. Ketergantungan Thailand terhadap pariwisata internasional memperbesar dampak krisis, sedangkan diversifikasi ekonomi Indonesia menunjukkan ketahanan lebih baik. Implikasi teoritis mencakup penguatan model prediksi berbasis teori akuntansi positif dan Grover. Implikasi praktis meliputi rekomendasi kebijakan diferensiatif bagi UMKM dan korporasi besar, urgensi diversifikasi ekonomi sebagai mitigasi risiko sistemik, efektivitas Grover sebagai alat deteksi dini bagi investor dan kreditor, serta pentingnya struktur keuangan yang resilient. Penelitian ini turut memperkaya literatur prediksi financial distress di pasar berkembang Asia Tenggara.

Keywords: Financial Distress, Pariwisata, Model Grover, Indonesia, Thailand

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Anastasia, E. R., & Riza, F. (2024). Accuracy Analysis of Financial Distress Prediction Models for Companies on the IDX Watchlist Board in 2020-2022 Period. Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting, 4(6), 681–689. https://doi.org/10.38035/dijefa.v4i6.2151

Awais-E-Yazdan, M., Popescu, V., Birau, R., & Bărbăcioru, I. C. (2025). Enhancing Tourist’s Perceived Safety and Their Behavioral Intention in Thailand: A Pathway to Sustainable Tourism and Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability (Switzerland), 17(10), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104297

Ayudhea, Y., & Puspita, D. A. (2023). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Sub Sektor Pariwisata, Restoran dan Hotel Sebelum dan Saat Pandemi Covid-19. Nominal Barometer Riset Akuntansi dan Manajemen, 12(2), 242–253. https://doi.org/10.21831/nominal.v12i2.59416

Behsudi, A. (2020). Wish you were here tourism-dependent economies are among those harmed the most by the pandemic. Finance and Development, 57(4), 36–39.

Biswas, R. (2023). Thailand’s economy rebounds in early 2023 as tourism surges. S&P Gliobal.

Boto-García, D., & Mayor, M. (2022). Domestic tourism and the resilience of hotel demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2022.103352

Crespí-Cladera, R., Martín-Oliver, A., & Pascual-Fuster, B. (2021). Financial distress in the hospitality industry during the Covid-19 disaster. Tourism Management, 85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2021.104301

Ernawati, E., Elysia Handojo, S., & R. Murhadi, W. (2018). Financial performance, corporate governance, and financial distress. Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research (ASSEHR), 186(March), 35–39. https://doi.org/10.2991/insyma-18.2018.9

Fauzi, K. S. F., & Isnawati, I. (2025). Financial Distress in the Tourism and Leisure Industry: The Accuracy of Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover Models. International Journal of Business and Applied Economics, 4(2), 681–696. https://doi.org/10.55927/ijbae.v4i2.41

Fitriyah, N., Bambang, B., & Mariadi, Y. (2022). Analisis Komprehensif Kesehatan Keuangan Sektor Pariwisata dan Transportasi dengan Menggunakan Financial Discriminant Model Pra dan Saat Pandemi COVID-19. Jurnal Ilmiah Tata Sejuta, 8(2), 104–116.

Hantono, H. (2019). Predicting Financial Distress Using Altman Score, Grover Score, Springate Score, Zmijewski Score (Case Study on Consumer Goods Company). Accountability, 8(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.32400/ja.23354.8.1.2019.1-16

Hicks, R. (2025). Post-COVID boom in visitors sparks over-tourism fears in Asia. Reuters.

Indriyanti, M. (2019). The Accuracy of Financial Distress Prediction Models: Empirical Study on the World’s 25 Biggest Tech Companies in 2015–2016 Forbes’s Version. KnE Social Sciences, 3(11), 442. https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v3i11.4025

Klinsrisuk, R., & Pechdin, W. (2022). Evidence from Thailand on Easing COVID-19’s International Travel Restrictions: An Impact on Economic Production, Household Income, and Sustainable Tourism Development. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063423

Koumelis, T. (2023). Thailand Tourism 2023: Remarkable recovery with promising economic contributions. Travel Daily News Asia.

Kumar, P., & Ekka, P. (2024). Statistical analysis of the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the small and large-scale tourism sectors in developing countries. In Environment, Development and Sustainability (Vol. 26, Nomor 4). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03112-4

Lestari, R. M. E., Situmorang, M., Pratama, M. I. P., & Bon, A. T. (2021). Financial distress analysis using altman (Z-score), springate (S-Score), zmijewski (X-Score), and grover (G-Score) models in the tourism, hospitality and restaurant subsectors listed on the Indonesia stock exchange period 2015-2019. Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, 4249–4259. https://doi.org/10.46254/an11.20210755

Liu, Y., Cheng, X., Shaoyi, S., & Yang, F. (2023). The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism and hospitality Industry: Evidence from international stock markets. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 64, 1–23.

M. Noor Salim, & Ismudjoko, D. (2021). An Analysis of Financial Distress Accuracy Models in Indonesia Coal Mining Industry: An Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Ohlson and Grover Approaches. Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting Studies, 3(2), 01–12. https://doi.org/10.32996/jefas.2021.3.2.1

Martínez, J. M. G., Martín, J. M. M., & Rey, M. del S. O. (2020). An analysis of the changes in the seasonal patterns of tourist behavior during a process of economic recovery. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 161(June), 120280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120280

Martini, R., Raihana Aksara, R., Rachma Sari, K., Zulkifli, Z., & Hartati, S. (2023). Comparison of Financial Distress Predictions With Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover Models. Golden Ratio of Finance Management, 3(1), 11–21. https://doi.org/10.52970/grfm.v3i1.216

Maulana, A. F., Ulva, C. I., Kusuma, F. E. P., Budiarti, F., Makaraseng, M. F. H. D.,